Trial Balloons

Democrats/progressives are freaking out over a leak from the White House that Obama is planning a $4 trillion deal with Republicans that would include cuts to Social Security and Medicare. The White House has already responded that the rumor has “overshot the runway,” whatever that means. It certainly seems to be somewhat less than an outright denial.

Me, I’m going to wait until there is something more concrete before I freak out. That being said, something is up, and I don’t think we’re going to like it very much.

The Obama Administration does these leaks all the time to gauge public reaction. Depending on the severity of the reaction, it then either proceeds with its plans or revises them to follow a slightly less objectionable policy. In the latter case they come out the winner because the "base" is relieved that it is not as bad as they thought it was going to be. The leak still works in their favor, because had they not leaked the original plan the actual policy would be met with howls of outrage, but since the actuality is less bad than the leaked policy, the base is content.

For example, they leak that the White House is going to kill the first born child in every household. Great outrage ensues, so the White House announces that no, they are only going to kill the first born children who happen to be females. Everybody applauds what a wonderful policy that is because the White House is not killing male children. Had they originally announced they were killing all first born female children, the base would never have accepted the plan.

So, we’ll just have to wait and see how long the runway actually is.