Much is being made of whether the Democrats or Republicans are going the win the midterm elections, and what it will mean for the parties and for Obama in the event that whichever one wins wins. I maintain that it doesn't matter which one wins, and which ever one does win the win will be totally and completely misinterpreted.
I base that on a Congress liked by less than 20% of voters.
The "base" will vote for its own party, as it always has and always will. The base will vote for a dead man, and has literally done so; elected man to office after he was dead. The "base votes" mean nothing; these voters vote as their party leaders tell them to, based on slogans rather than issues.
Many independent voters will vote against the incumbent. That vote is always, always seen by the politicians as a vote in favor of the party currently out of power, and it is not; it favors nobody, is a vote against the status quo. That voter despises everybody and is simply voting to throw out the person who is in. Politicians simply cannot comprehend that and the winner says, "Thank you for voting for me."
If Democrats win in November it will be seen as validation, but it will actually only mean that the party has not been sufficiently repulsive to totally alienate the "base" and, to a larger degree, that their opposition was simply not capable of delivering a captivating message.
If Republicans win it will be see as a repudiation of Democratic Party principles and/or a validation of Republican ones, when in actuality it will reflect a desire to change the status quo and a rejection of corporatism and cronyism that rules our governing process today.
In neither case will it change Washington in any significant manner.