Tuesday, November 30, 2021

State of the Pandemic

The media is back in panic mode with the advent of the Omicron variant, but preliminary information from doctors who have actually treated it is that it follows the typical pattern of viral evolution and is less pernicious than the original. The Delta variant is clearly part of that pattern, in that deaths from the virus are less common with that variant than with the original. At this point in California:

1.2% of people who become ill from the virus die from it. That sounds a bit dire, but it turns out that one is very unlikely to become ill.

3.0% of people who are tested for the virus test positive.

That means that 0.036% (less than 4 of 10,000) who are tested will die.

0.04% per year, (4 of 10,000) is the percentage of California's population who will suffer death from the virus. Per year.

Are we over-reacting?


  1. I think the bigger deal about the Delta variant was its increased tranmissibility, not that it was necessarily more fatal. Don't know stats on that off hand. Yes, overreacting to the Omicron variant.

  2. "3.0% of people who are tested for the virus test positive"

    3% is not a constant. That number can grow very quickly according to how transmissible the variant is.