Promising Signs

The San Diego paper had quite a lot to say (sorry, unable to link) about public opinion of Biden’s pick for Vice President. They said that it “changed few minds” but that survey showed that there were “promising signs” for Biden nationally, which seems a bit contradictory.  

 

“Overall support for Biden went from 54 percent to 56 percent,” they told us, while “Trump showed a slight bump” going from 25% to 28% in the poll. So a 3.7% increase for Biden deserves no modifying adjective, while a 12% increase for Trump is “a slight bump.” Interesting. Do we detect a slight bias in this reporting? 

 

If there were any “promising signs” in the survey, they were entirely for Trump, as his numbers improved in nearly every category by more than Biden's did, in some important categories dramatically more. 

 

In addition to overall support above, where Trump’s increase was larger than Biden’s by 12% to 3.7%, Trump had higher gains within his own party. Biden gained nothing among Democrats, remaining at 86%, while Trump gained 6 points among Republicans, going from 72% to 78%. 

 

Each gained a single point in the opposing party, which represents a 9% gain for Biden and a 25% gain for Trump. 

 

Biden gained a single point among white voters, from 44% to 45% which represents a 2.3% increase, while Trump gained 3 points, from 39% to 42% for a 7.7% increase. 

 

Biden got utterly destroyed in the black vote, which is really weird, since he selected Harris for the specific purpose of courting the black vote. It seems to have had the opposite effect. Biden actually lost ground, dropping from 83% to 80%, which represents a 3.6% decrease. Trump’s support among blacks went from 7% to 15%, giving him a 115% increase which is simply stunning. 

 

And somehow, Democrats can look at this survey and see “promising signs” for Biden’s election. Can he win the election with 15% of the black vote going to Trump?